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Ajaccio 1–0 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Dec 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antony Gautier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win40%2.42
Draw30%3.26
Le Havre AC win30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'🟨Harold Moukoudi · Le Havre AC
28'⚽ (pen)Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
61'🟨Jérôme Hergault · Ajaccio
65'🟨Baba Traore · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots8
1On target5
7Corners7
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.240.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.530.68
cards avg (last 5)1.001.20
coach days191.00434.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.18
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade François-Coty
corner diff avg (last 5)
1.00
-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.207.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.203.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.03
dominance (last 5)0.440.46
elo1487.221562.40
elo momentum (last 5)-34.5126.93
eye test v1-0.97-0.13
eye trend v10.050.15
first sub minute (last 10)59.6066.50
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.791.07
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.700.79
league points57.0035.00
league rank1.007.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8074.40
possession avg (last 5)47.8045.80
rest days10.7911.00
scorer concentration0.190.26
season ppg1.631.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.208.40
skill v1-0.44-0.51
sot against avg (last 5)5.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.804.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.20
squad age27.9524.56
state index-0.820.60
sterile dominance v1-0.02-0.29
threat rate (last 10)0.200.27
threat rate (last 3)0.230.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.23
venue ppg (last 5)0.402.20