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Tours 1–2 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win36%2.68
Tours win34%2.88
Draw30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽John Tshibumbu · Tours
34'⚽Youssouf Hadji · Nancy
43'🟨Ibrahim Cisse · Tours
44'🟨John Tshibumbu · Tours
44'⚽ (pen)Youssouf Hadji · Nancy
46'🟨Anthony Lippini · Tours
56'🟨Cheick Diarra · Tours
58'🟨Tobias Badila · Nancy
77'🟨Daniel Mancini · Tours
90'🟨Anthony Robic · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
11Shots6
4On target4
1Corners4
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.30
box share (last 5)0.510.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days37.00129.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
3.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.102.04
elo1327.361426.68
elo momentum (last 5)-23.46-28.28
eye test v10.31-0.55
eye trend v10.240.17
first sub minute (last 10)55.3057.20
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.25
keeper form v10.540.60
league points5.0017.00
league rank19.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet20.008.00
matches since win3.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6076.00
possession avg (last 5)48.2049.80
rest days9.969.96
scorer concentration0.250.32
season ppg0.291.00
skill v1-0.54-0.07
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.20
state index-1.27-1.18
sterile dominance v1-0.340.12
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.25
threat rate (last 5)0.250.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.600.40