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Niort 1–2 Reims

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win43%2.27
Draw29%3.32
Niort win28%3.54

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Didier Lamkel Zé · Niort
26'🟨Xavier Chavalerin · Reims
42'🟨Cyriaque Rivieryan · Niort
49'⚽Diego · Reims
62'⚽Rémi Oudin · Reims
80'🟨Diego · Reims
87'🟨Hassane Kamara · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots8
4On target3
5Corners10
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.630.64
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
525.00
221.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.002.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.02
dominance (last 5)0.450.59
elo1496.831590.67
elo momentum (last 5)34.2924.06
eye test v10.18-0.33
eye trend v1-0.27-0.57
first sub minute (last 10)63.2061.00
form points (last 5)10.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.710.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.740.85
league points34.0047.00
league rank7.002.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8072.00
possession avg (last 5)47.0047.40
rest days9.7911.00
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg1.702.35
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.003.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.0010.20
skill v1-0.60-0.66
sot against avg (last 5)4.402.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.00
squad age28.1626.46
state index0.350.80
sterile dominance v1-0.59-0.33
threat rate (last 10)0.280.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.19
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.602.00