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AJ Auxerre 1–2 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Cedric Dos Santos, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
AJ Auxerre win49%2.01
Draw31%3.11
Chateauroux win20%4.86

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
24'⚽Pierre-Yves Polomat · AJ Auxerre
34'🟨Hamza Sakhi · AJ Auxerre
36'🟨Yaya Sane · AJ Auxerre
63'⚽Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
68'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
77'⚽Sofiane Khadda · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots11
8On target6
13Corners4
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAJ AuxerreChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.230.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.480.39
cards avg (last 5)0.801.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
7.00
1529.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.40-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.671.77
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.05
dominance (last 5)0.560.51
elo1415.571399.70
elo momentum (last 5)-33.6819.27
eye test v1-0.46-0.59
eye trend v10.13-0.30
first sub minute (last 10)62.0062.90
form points (last 5)1.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.790.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.720.71
league points23.0027.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win7.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)54.6047.00
rest days11.0010.00
scorer concentration0.380.22
season ppg1.151.35
shot diff avg (last 5)2.200.00
shots for avg (last 5)10.009.60
skill v10.61-0.22
sot against avg (last 5)3.203.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.803.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.80
squad age26.4327.00
state index-0.86-0.23
sterile dominance v10.36-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.230.24
threat rate (last 3)0.280.22
threat rate (last 5)0.240.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80