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FC Lorient 2–1 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Dec 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Castro, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win54%1.81
Draw24%4.00
Sochaux win22%4.50

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Franklin Wadja · FC Lorient
55'⚽Florian Martin · Sochaux
63'🟨Ibrahima Sory Conté · FC Lorient
81'⚽Denis Bouanga · FC Lorient
83'🟥Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
87'⚽Lindsay Rose · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots8
6On target3
5Corners3
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.41
box share (last 5)0.680.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days192.00190.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
3.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.554.18
elo1506.451443.71
elo momentum (last 5)-6.7131.01
eye test v10.961.12
eye trend v10.060.08
first sub minute (last 10)59.2055.70
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.16
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.740.65
league points29.0027.00
league rank7.009.00
matches since blank6.001.00
matches since clean sheet4.005.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8071.80
possession avg (last 5)59.6052.40
rest days9.969.96
scorer concentration0.210.25
season ppg1.711.59
skill v11.21-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)4.805.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.405.50
sot for avg (last 3)6.006.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.207.00
state index-0.12-0.00
sterile dominance v10.43-0.82
threat rate (last 10)0.260.32
threat rate (last 3)0.290.32
threat rate (last 5)0.290.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80