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Nancy 0–3 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Tue, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win42%2.34
Draw31%3.14
Le Havre AC win27%3.57

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Baba Traore · Le Havre AC
25'⚽Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC
28'⚽Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC
82'🟨Laurent Abergel · Nancy
87'🟨Zinedine Ferhat · Le Havre AC
90'⚽Zinedine Ferhat · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
12Shots9
3On target6
7Corners1
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.37
box share (last 5)0.600.67
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days119.00423.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.832.10
elo1443.641514.43
elo momentum (last 5)-11.5719.34
eye test v1-0.610.00
eye trend v10.130.11
first sub minute (last 10)57.9069.90
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.250.94
keeper form v10.630.78
league points17.0028.00
league rank15.008.00
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0075.60
possession avg (last 5)45.6051.00
rest days4.043.24
scorer concentration0.320.30
season ppg1.061.75
skill v1-0.47-0.03
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
state index-0.580.17
sterile dominance v1-0.350.04
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.240.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80