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FC Lorient 1–2 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Tue, Nov 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win45%2.15
Nimes win28%3.53
Draw27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Fethi Harek · Nimes
28'🟨Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes
34'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes
44'🟨Ibrahima Sory Conté · FC Lorient
51'🟨Sada Thioub · Nimes
65'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
83'🟨Faïz Selemani · FC Lorient
85'🟨Umut Bozok · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
9Shots13
3On target6
3Corners6
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.38
box share (last 5)0.620.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days182.00758.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.33
elo1516.351579.71
elo momentum (last 5)13.1422.17
eye test v11.321.29
eye trend v10.24-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)58.4058.10
form points (last 5)10.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.602.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.203.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.271.40
keeper form v10.740.70
league points29.0031.00
league rank6.003.00
matches since blank5.0012.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2071.60
possession avg (last 5)59.2053.00
rest days4.044.04
scorer concentration0.220.39
season ppg1.811.94
skill v11.23-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.606.90
sot for avg (last 3)7.008.00
sot for avg (last 5)7.007.20
state index0.320.83
sterile dominance v10.25-1.06
threat rate (last 10)0.260.35
threat rate (last 3)0.310.35
threat rate (last 5)0.310.37
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.80