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Niort 2–1 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastien Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win48%2.02
Draw28%3.52
Chateauroux win24%4.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'🟨Alliou Dembele · Niort
20'⚽Didier Lamkel Zé · Niort
24'⚽Jeremy Choplin · Niort
29'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
49'⚽Maxime Barthelmé · Chateauroux
59'🟨Jonathan Brison · Niort
86'🟨David Djigla · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots9
6On target4
9Corners3
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.43
box share (last 5)0.490.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days511.001515.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.841.95
elo1428.171488.43
elo momentum (last 5)-5.6633.49
eye test v10.48-0.43
eye trend v10.07-0.51
first sub minute (last 10)57.5058.40
form points (last 5)5.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.14
keeper form v10.670.70
league points19.0023.00
league rank13.009.00
matches since blank4.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6067.60
possession avg (last 5)47.2039.00
rest days3.977.00
scorer concentration0.250.24
season ppg1.271.53
skill v1-0.40-1.69
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)5.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.60
state index-0.450.23
sterile dominance v1-0.54-1.12
threat rate (last 10)0.280.24
threat rate (last 3)0.290.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80