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Valenciennes 4–2 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win48%2.02
Draw28%3.44
Valenciennes win23%4.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
15'⚽Sébastien Roudet · Valenciennes
25'🟨Tony Mauricio · Valenciennes
41'⚽Lebo Mothiba · Valenciennes
56'⚽Gaël Danic · FC Lorient
66'⚽Mohamed Mara · FC Lorient
69'⚽Lebo Mothiba · Valenciennes
79'🟨Gaël Danic · FC Lorient
79'⚽ (pen)Tony Mauricio · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
10Shots13
7On target9
3Corners6
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.36
box share (last 5)0.660.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days693.00178.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.412.55
elo1435.121532.98
elo momentum (last 5)13.0526.11
eye test v10.161.30
eye trend v10.540.36
first sub minute (last 10)55.9061.10
form points (last 5)7.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.35
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
keeper form v10.710.80
league points21.0029.00
league rank12.004.00
matches since blank1.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8082.40
possession avg (last 5)50.0060.00
rest days7.006.21
scorer concentration0.350.24
season ppg1.401.93
skill v1-0.181.30
sot against avg (last 5)3.404.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.50
sot for avg (last 3)5.677.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.806.80
state index-0.050.45
sterile dominance v10.010.21
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.32
threat rate (last 5)0.230.32
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40