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Orleans 1–2 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Fri, Nov 24, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Cedric Dos Santos, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win38%2.55
Orleans win32%3.05
Draw30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'⚽Remy Dugimont · Clermont
26'🟨Mathias Pereira Lage · Clermont
64'🟨Thomas Fontaine · Clermont
64'⚽ (pen)Karim Ziani · Orleans
67'🟨Livio Nabab · Orleans
69'🟨Ludovic Ajorque · Clermont
90'⚽ (pen)Remy Dugimont · Clermont

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots11
8On target4
4Corners4
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.27
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.22
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.24
box share (last 5)0.700.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1972.001972.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.731.25
elo1432.961510.78
elo momentum (last 5)-18.4519.62
eye test v1-0.93-0.07
eye trend v1-0.23-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)55.9065.40
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.17
keeper form v10.700.76
league points19.0026.00
league rank13.006.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2081.60
possession avg (last 5)45.0055.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.180.32
season ppg1.271.73
skill v1-0.900.91
sot against avg (last 5)8.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.103.90
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.403.60
state index-0.650.23
sterile dominance v10.090.30
threat rate (last 10)0.160.27
threat rate (last 3)0.130.25
threat rate (last 5)0.160.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.00