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Racing Club de Lens 3–1 Niort

← Ligue 2 2017 · Mon, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Willy Delajod, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win60%1.64
Draw24%4.10
Niort win17%5.85

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽ (pen)Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
20'🟨Laurent Agouazi · Niort
39'🟨Jonathan Brison · Niort
50'⚽Didier Lamkel Zé · Niort
63'⚽Souleymane Diarra · Racing Club de Lens
66'🟨Clément Chantôme · Racing Club de Lens
86'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
90'⚽Souleymane Diarra · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
14Shots9
11On target3
4Corners3
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensNiort
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.48
box share (last 5)0.530.54
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days91.00507.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
2.00
1.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.153.19
elo1474.491439.15
elo momentum (last 5)28.1913.73
eye test v11.070.51
eye trend v10.150.16
first sub minute (last 10)61.7057.30
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.891.49
keeper form v10.630.61
league points11.0019.00
league rank17.0013.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win3.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4073.80
possession avg (last 5)57.6044.40
rest days16.2417.03
scorer concentration0.210.27
season ppg0.791.36
skill v11.34-0.67
sot against avg (last 5)2.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 3)5.336.00
sot for avg (last 5)6.205.60
state index0.18-0.18
sterile dominance v10.39-0.67
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.210.29
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80