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FC Lorient 4–2 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Nov 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Sebastien Moreira, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win53%1.85
Draw26%3.80
Stade Brestois 29 win21%4.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

28'⚽Julien Faussurier · Stade Brestois 29
31'🟨Valentin Henry · Stade Brestois 29
32'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
51'⚽Denis Bouanga · FC Lorient
58'⚽Pierre-Yves Hamel · FC Lorient
71'🟨Ibrahima Sissoko · Stade Brestois 29
80'⚽Julien Faussurier · Stade Brestois 29
81'⚽ (og)Gaëtan Belaud · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots13
8On target6
6Corners3
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.410.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.600.70
cards avg (last 5)0.802.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
172.00
505.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.07
corner diff avg (last 5)3.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.206.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.924.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.21
dominance (last 5)0.640.56
elo1570.441529.99
elo momentum (last 5)-2.76-29.94
eye test v10.890.17
eye trend v10.14-0.10
first sub minute (last 10)59.6062.00
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.82
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
keeper form v10.840.74
league points28.0023.00
league rank8.0012.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.8080.20
possession avg (last 5)62.6055.20
rest days15.0015.00
scorer concentration0.220.25
season ppg1.751.53
shot diff avg (last 5)7.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.4010.00
skill v11.520.74
sot against avg (last 5)4.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)6.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.20
squad age25.3626.33
state index0.51-0.28
sterile dominance v10.600.45
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00