⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Niort 1–1 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Niort win40%2.46
Clermont win31%3.12
Draw29%3.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

53'🟨Ludovic Ajorque · Clermont
58'🟨Cyriaque Rivieryan · Niort
62'🟨Romain Grange · Niort
86'⚽Remy Dugimont · Clermont
87'🟨Nicolas Gavory · Clermont
90'🟨Alliou Dembele · Niort
90'⚽Jimmy Roye · Niort

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots12
9On target4
5Corners5
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNiortClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.470.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.510.23
box share (last 5)0.590.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days490.001951.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade René-Gaillard
3.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.172.07
elo1438.991504.54
elo momentum (last 5)43.9613.01
eye test v10.44-0.31
eye trend v10.150.02
first sub minute (last 10)57.5063.40
form points (last 5)10.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.511.26
keeper form v10.610.73
league points18.0022.00
league rank11.007.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.4078.20
possession avg (last 5)43.8051.80
rest days7.046.25
scorer concentration0.290.35
season ppg1.381.69
skill v1-1.070.30
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.40
state index0.300.06
sterile dominance v1-0.78-0.03
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.260.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40