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Orleans 3–3 Sochaux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Nov 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastien Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win36%2.70
Sochaux win34%2.90
Draw30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Florent Ogier · Sochaux
21'⚽ (pen)Karim Ziani · Orleans
27'⚽Florin Berenguer · Sochaux
36'🟨Zakarya Bergdich · Sochaux
37'⚽Hicham Benkaid · Orleans
38'⚽Mickaël Alphonse · Sochaux
40'🟨Gauthier Pinaud · Orleans
41'🟨Hicham Benkaid · Orleans
54'🟨Jean Ruiz · Sochaux
55'⚽ (pen)Karim Ziani · Orleans
86'🟨Cédric Cambon · Orleans
86'⚽ (pen)Florian Martin · Sochaux
90'🟨Sofiane Daham · Sochaux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
9Shots15
4On target9
3Corners5
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansSochaux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.35
box share (last 5)0.670.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1951.00155.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.703.69
elo1445.321421.99
elo momentum (last 5)-23.46-1.86
eye test v1-0.45-0.12
eye trend v1-0.080.34
first sub minute (last 10)62.0058.60
form points (last 5)4.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.070.74
keeper form v10.700.57
league points18.0020.00
league rank12.0010.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6071.40
possession avg (last 5)46.0044.20
rest days7.047.04
scorer concentration0.190.36
season ppg1.381.54
skill v1-0.89-0.93
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.20
state index-0.50-0.41
sterile dominance v1-0.03-0.88
threat rate (last 10)0.180.29
threat rate (last 3)0.150.32
threat rate (last 5)0.180.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40