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Clermont 1–1 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Sat, Oct 28, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Stephane Jochem, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win44%2.20
Draw29%3.38
Ajaccio win27%3.63

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

23'⚽Mathias Pereira Lage · Clermont
66'🟨Cedric Avinel · Ajaccio
90'πŸŸ₯Fabien Centonze Β· Clermont
90'⚽ (pen)Riad Nouri · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots7
5On target6
2Corners5
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.270.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.250.45
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.00
box share (last 5)0.610.51
cards avg (last 5)2.201.00
coach days1945.00149.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.005.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.26
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
corner diff avg (last 5)
-1.60
-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.602.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.262.62
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.03
dominance (last 5)0.490.57
elo1519.011525.00
elo momentum (last 5)32.5234.25
eye test v1-0.12-0.57
eye trend v10.01-0.32
first sub minute (last 10)62.5063.10
form points (last 5)10.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.331.69
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.00
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.35
keeper form v10.760.68
league points27.0048.00
league rank4.001.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2074.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2051.40
rest days8.000.83
scorer concentration0.380.25
season ppg1.801.85
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.402.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.0010.00
skill v10.33-0.14
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age24.7029.04
state index0.570.50
sterile dominance v1-0.110.67
threat rate (last 10)0.320.20
threat rate (last 3)0.300.13
threat rate (last 5)0.280.15
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80