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Stade Brestois 29 0–1 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 27, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alexandre Perreau Niel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win54%1.81
Draw27%3.57
Orleans win19%5.18

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

42'⚽Gaëtan Perrin · Orleans
60'🟨Ferris N'Goma · Orleans
66'🟨Habib Diallo · Stade Brestois 29
70'🟨Anthony Weber · Stade Brestois 29
73'🟨Gaëtan Perrin · Orleans
84'🟨Denis Will Poha · Orleans
87'🟨Édouard Butin · Stade Brestois 29
87'🟨Gauthier Pinaud · Orleans
90'🟨Cédric Cambon · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
14Shots2
7On target1
8Corners2
3Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Orleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.41—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.47—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.42—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.15
box share (last 5)0.64—
cards avg (last 5)2.603.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-Blé
483.00
1944.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.15
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.407.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.604.80
corners volatility (last 10)4.272.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.18
dominance (last 5)0.430.32
elo1545.691428.46
elo momentum (last 5)-7.50-44.11
eye test v1-0.07-0.87
eye trend v1-0.030.20
first sub minute (last 10)60.1065.30
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.18
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.740.67
league points22.0015.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet4.007.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4072.00
possession avg (last 5)54.2048.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.20
season ppg1.691.25
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-7.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.606.40
skill v10.59-0.59
sot against avg (last 5)3.805.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.504.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.40
squad age26.2228.23
state index-0.08-1.20
sterile dominance v10.690.25
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.210.21
threat rate (last 5)0.200.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80