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Racing Club de Lens 0–1 Reims

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Sat, Oct 21, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win38%2.60
Reims win33%2.94
Draw29%3.33

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Diego · Reims
69'🟨Karim Hafez · Racing Club de Lens
77'🟨Anatole Ngamukol · Reims

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots6
7On target2
9Corners1
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.31
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.680.65
cards avg (last 5)0.400.80
coach days61.00173.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.19
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
corner diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.205.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.701.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.14
dominance (last 5)0.570.56
elo1561.761554.70
elo momentum (last 5)49.2114.77
eye test v10.050.49
eye trend v10.33-0.28
first sub minute (last 10)55.5065.70
form points (last 5)12.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)3.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)3.202.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.201.78
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.710.72
league points18.0033.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank4.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2072.40
possession avg (last 5)50.4053.00
rest days7.838.00
scorer concentration0.230.22
season ppg1.292.36
shot diff avg (last 5)3.803.00
shots for avg (last 5)11.8013.60
skill v10.42-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.40
squad age25.2526.33
state index1.220.50
sterile dominance v1-0.12-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.230.31
threat rate (last 3)0.350.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.32
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80