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Orleans 1–2 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mehdi Mokhtari, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win47%2.06
Draw29%3.38
Orleans win24%4.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

45'⚽ (og)Ibrahima Sory Conté · Orleans
62'⚽Ibrahima Sory Conté · FC Lorient
72'🟨Thomas Renault · Orleans
78'🟨Gauthier Pinaud · Orleans
84'⚽Majeed Waris · FC Lorient
90'🟨Karim Ziani · Orleans
90'🟨Ousmane Cissokho · Orleans
90'🟨Zargo Touré · FC Lorient
90'🟨Steven Moreira · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
6Shots17
4On target7
4Corners8
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.40
box share (last 5)0.690.53
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1937.00143.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.92
elo1441.281503.22
elo momentum (last 5)-24.59-19.36
eye test v1-0.560.17
eye trend v10.07-0.29
first sub minute (last 10)63.3065.00
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.26
keeper form v10.670.82
league points15.0019.00
league rank10.008.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win4.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.2082.20
possession avg (last 5)49.4057.20
rest days7.003.97
scorer concentration0.200.23
season ppg1.361.73
skill v1-0.381.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.20
state index-0.63-0.33
sterile dominance v10.450.91
threat rate (last 10)0.200.22
threat rate (last 3)0.210.23
threat rate (last 5)0.160.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.40