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Nancy 2–2 Clermont

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win45%2.15
Draw31%3.10
Clermont win23%4.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'🟨Laurent Abergel · Nancy
22'🟨David Douline · Clermont
25'🟨Nicolas Gavory · Clermont
26'⚽Joeffrey Cuffaut · Nancy
30'⚽Julien Laporte · Clermont
47'🟨Modou Diagne · Nancy
55'🟨Vincent Marchetti · Nancy
70'⚽Alexis Busin · Nancy
81'⚽Ludovic Ajorque · Clermont

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
16Shots13
6On target6
7Corners6
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyClermont
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.26
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.21
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.27
box share (last 5)0.580.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days80.001937.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.701.95
elo1455.211506.63
elo momentum (last 5)6.3723.82
eye test v10.37-0.25
eye trend v10.21-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)56.6066.10
form points (last 5)7.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.421.35
keeper form v10.680.83
league points13.0020.00
league rank15.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2077.80
possession avg (last 5)48.4051.60
rest days7.006.21
scorer concentration0.460.36
season ppg1.181.82
skill v10.280.25
sot against avg (last 5)2.402.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.60
state index0.010.31
sterile dominance v1-0.100.03
threat rate (last 10)0.250.33
threat rate (last 3)0.240.27
threat rate (last 5)0.260.26
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.40