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Nimes 4–0 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Karim Abed, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win49%1.99
Draw27%3.61
Stade Brestois 29 win24%4.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes
19'🟨Romain Del Castillo · Nimes
19'🟨Ibrahima Sissoko · Stade Brestois 29
31'🟨Alexandre Coeff · Stade Brestois 29
43'🟨Ibrahima Sissoko · Stade Brestois 29
43'🟥Ibrahima Sissoko · Stade Brestois 29
51'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes
54'🟥Zakaria Diallo · Stade Brestois 29
59'⚽Romain Del Castillo · Nimes
83'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
18Shots3
7On target2
10Corners3
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.460.55
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
719.00
476.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.003.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.007.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.354.03
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.09
dominance (last 5)0.690.52
elo1563.131561.13
elo momentum (last 5)-14.6216.28
eye test v10.930.43
eye trend v1-0.210.05
first sub minute (last 10)60.0059.40
form points (last 5)9.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.631.17
h2 goals (last 10)1.201.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v1—0.81
league points19.0022.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank7.008.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2080.40
possession avg (last 5)53.0055.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.210.25
season ppg1.731.83
shot diff avg (last 5)7.600.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.809.80
skill v1-0.440.81
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.605.00
squad age24.2127.09
state index0.430.54
sterile dominance v1-0.840.47
threat rate (last 10)0.340.23
threat rate (last 3)0.340.24
threat rate (last 5)0.340.25
venue ppg (last 5)2.002.40