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Chateauroux 3–1 Reims

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win50%1.96
Draw28%3.51
Chateauroux win22%4.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
24'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
36'🟨Pablo Chavarria · Reims
45'⚽Diego · Reims
55'🟨Nama Fofana · Chateauroux
86'⚽ (pen)Maxime Barthelmé · Chateauroux
88'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
88'🟨Youssouf Koné · Reims
89'🟨Mouez Hassen · Chateauroux
90'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
90'🟥Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
90'⚽Yann Mabella · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots19
8On target8
0Corners5
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.29
box share (last 5)0.600.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1473.00165.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Petit
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.752.04
elo1454.931530.83
elo momentum (last 5)-57.2534.59
eye test v10.430.37
eye trend v1-0.71-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)44.2068.00
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.601.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.711.56
keeper form v10.570.79
league points12.0024.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank2.004.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win4.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8073.20
possession avg (last 5)48.8050.60
rest days14.0013.21
scorer concentration0.360.24
season ppg1.202.40
skill v10.27-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)6.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.00
state index-1.170.77
sterile dominance v10.20-0.81
threat rate (last 10)0.250.31
threat rate (last 3)0.210.32
threat rate (last 5)0.220.33
venue ppg (last 5)—2.40