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Chateauroux 3–1 Reims

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win50%1.96
Draw28%3.51
Chateauroux win22%4.36

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
24'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
36'🟨Pablo Chavarria · Reims
45'⚽Diego · Reims
55'🟨Nama Fofana · Chateauroux
86'⚽ (pen)Maxime Barthelmé · Chateauroux
88'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
88'🟨Youssouf Koné · Reims
89'🟨Mouez Hassen · Chateauroux
90'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
90'🟥Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
90'⚽Yann Mabella · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
9Shots19
8On target8
0Corners5
5Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.470.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.600.66
cards avg (last 5)1.800.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Petit
1473.00
165.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-1.40
corners against avg (last 5)6.406.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.901.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.230.17
dominance (last 5)0.460.60
elo1353.691576.25
elo momentum (last 5)-46.7949.52
eye test v10.430.37
eye trend v1-0.71-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)44.2068.00
form points (last 5)0.0015.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-2.002.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.603.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.651.71
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.570.79
league points15.0033.00
league rank14.002.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet9.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8073.20
possession avg (last 5)48.8050.60
rest days14.0013.00
scorer concentration0.360.24
season ppg1.152.54
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.603.80
shots for avg (last 5)10.0013.00
skill v10.27-0.29
sot against avg (last 5)6.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)5.804.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.00
squad age25.9426.56
state index-1.351.10
sterile dominance v10.20-0.81
threat rate (last 10)0.250.31
threat rate (last 3)0.210.32
threat rate (last 5)0.220.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.40