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Valenciennes 2–0 Tours

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valenciennes win35%2.76
Tours win35%2.80
Draw30%3.28

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Anthony Lippini · Tours
9'🟨Romain Bayard · Tours
34'🟨Lenny Nangis · Valenciennes
45'🟨Florian Makhedjouf · Tours
57'⚽Sébastien Roudet · Valenciennes
75'🟨Laurent Dos Santos · Valenciennes
84'⚽Elhadj Dabo · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
9Shots5
4On target3
5Corners2
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesTours
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.250.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.45
box share (last 5)0.520.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days651.00226.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.833.46
elo1422.071371.77
elo momentum (last 5)-27.49-22.26
eye test v1-0.76-0.36
eye trend v10.22-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)63.0057.30
form points (last 5)6.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.20-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.600.53
keeper form v10.750.84
league points14.002.00
league rank10.0019.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.0013.00
matches since win0.0012.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0072.20
possession avg (last 5)48.2047.40
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.50—
season ppg1.400.20
skill v1-0.27-0.62
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.40
sot for avg (last 10)2.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.80
state index-0.63-1.51
sterile dominance v10.090.05
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.200.20
threat rate (last 5)0.210.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.40