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Nimes 4–1 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Oct 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win53%1.83
Draw26%3.69
Orleans win20%4.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

4'⚽Umut Bozok · Nimes
21'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes
23'⚽ (og)Anthony Briançon · Orleans
29'🟨Pierre Bouby · Orleans
36'🟨Hicham Benkaid · Orleans
43'🟨Theo Valls · Nimes
63'⚽Rachid Alioui · Nimes
69'🟨Oumar Camara · Orleans
71'🟨Steve Furtado · Orleans
73'🟨Karim Ziani · Orleans
78'⚽Sada Thioub · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
17Shots9
10On target5
6Corners4
1Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNimesOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.49
box share (last 5)0.500.71
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days712.001930.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade des Costières
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.353.21
elo1547.411451.41
elo momentum (last 5)-4.46-11.26
eye test v10.64-0.35
eye trend v1-0.180.03
first sub minute (last 10)59.3065.70
form points (last 5)9.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.581.35
keeper form v1—0.63
league points16.0015.00
league rank8.009.00
matches since blank6.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0073.40
possession avg (last 5)52.4047.80
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration0.200.20
season ppg1.601.50
skill v1-0.50-0.46
sot against avg (last 5)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.104.10
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.003.80
state index0.17-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.680.32
threat rate (last 10)0.310.20
threat rate (last 3)0.270.15
threat rate (last 5)0.310.16
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80