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Le Havre AC 3–2 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2017 · Mon, Oct 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Stephane Jochem, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win36%2.69
FC Lorient win33%2.93
Draw30%3.21

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Faïz Selemani · FC Lorient
18'🟨Ebenezer Assifuah · Le Havre AC
33'⚽Jean-Philippe Mateta · Le Havre AC
43'⚽Alexandre Bonnet · Le Havre AC
46'🟨Denys Bain · Le Havre AC
70'⚽Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC
76'🟨Harold Moukoudi · Le Havre AC
80'⚽Fabien Lemoine · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1
11Shots15
7On target6
7Corners11
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.150.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.160.51
box share (last 5)0.530.50
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days366.00125.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
3.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.272.71
elo1501.881515.54
elo momentum (last 5)-24.1011.47
eye test v1-1.100.38
eye trend v1-0.32-0.26
first sub minute (last 10)65.0063.60
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.551.17
keeper form v10.810.78
league points16.0018.00
league rank8.005.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0082.20
possession avg (last 5)49.8054.20
rest days10.039.24
scorer concentration0.310.27
season ppg1.782.00
skill v1-0.260.89
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.805.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)1.805.00
state index-0.150.08
sterile dominance v1-0.160.96
threat rate (last 10)0.280.22
threat rate (last 3)0.290.15
threat rate (last 5)0.240.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.40