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Tours 1–2 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastien Dechepy

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win39%2.47
Tours win30%3.20
Draw30%3.24

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨Cyriaque Louvion · Tours
55'⚽Habib Diallo · Stade Brestois 29
64'⚽Jessy Pi · Stade Brestois 29
74'🟨Bruno Grougi · Stade Brestois 29
78'🟨Jason Berthomier · Stade Brestois 29
84'⚽Gauthier Hein · Tours

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots7
6On target6
6Corners6
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.410.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.370.60
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
212.00
455.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.22
corner diff avg (last 5)1.402.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.204.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.606.80
corners volatility (last 10)3.663.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.240.04
dominance (last 5)0.530.40
elo1366.871559.93
elo momentum (last 5)-29.7034.81
eye test v10.060.00
eye trend v1-0.50-0.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.0059.30
form points (last 5)2.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.601.00
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.401.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.840.83
league points2.0018.00
league rank22.006.00
matches since blank1.006.00
matches since clean sheet12.001.00
matches since win11.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0078.00
possession avg (last 5)50.2053.00
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration—0.20
season ppg0.221.80
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-3.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.208.80
skill v1-0.230.38
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.505.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.335.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.40
squad age25.7526.13
state index-1.560.51
sterile dominance v1-0.040.49
threat rate (last 10)0.210.23
threat rate (last 3)0.160.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.002.40