⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Orleans 3–4 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Cedric Dos Santos, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Orleans win51%1.90
Draw27%3.59
Valenciennes win22%4.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

2'⚽Yannick Gomis · Orleans
10'⚽Cédric Cambon · Orleans
19'⚽Lebo Mothiba · Valenciennes
37'🟨Laurent Dos Santos · Valenciennes
41'⚽Pierre Bouby · Orleans
43'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
55'⚽Lebo Mothiba · Valenciennes
71'🟨Medhy Guezoui · Valenciennes
78'🟨Ferris N'Goma · Orleans
82'🟨Livio Nabab · Orleans
83'⚽ (og)Livio Nabab · Valenciennes
86'⚽Lebo Mothiba · Valenciennes
90'🟨Adrien Monfray · Orleans
90'🟨Cédric Cambon · Orleans

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
9Shots11
9On target8
9Corners7
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOrleansValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.18
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.480.27
box share (last 5)0.660.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1916.00637.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Source
4.00
4.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.211.73
elo1464.631408.85
elo momentum (last 5)15.40-25.46
eye test v1-0.76-0.81
eye trend v1-0.400.06
first sub minute (last 10)65.9061.80
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.261.25
keeper form v10.710.78
league points15.0011.00
league rank9.0013.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.8076.80
possession avg (last 5)44.8047.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.170.29
season ppg1.671.22
skill v1-0.73-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)2.606.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.602.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.001.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.602.80
state index0.04-0.94
sterile dominance v10.140.22
threat rate (last 10)0.210.18
threat rate (last 3)0.120.16
threat rate (last 5)0.160.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.60