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Nancy 4–1 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Sep 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win52%1.88
Draw29%3.36
Chateauroux win19%5.08

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Youssouf Hadji · Nancy
24'⚽Youssouf Hadji · Nancy
37'🟥Cheik Traoré · Chateauroux
44'⚽Youssouf Hadji · Nancy
47'🟨Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
62'🟨Alaeddine Yahia · Nancy
75'🟨Sidy Sarr · Chateauroux
78'⚽Sidy Sarr · Chateauroux
83'🟥Saïd Benrahma · Chateauroux
85'⚽Amine Bassi · Nancy
88'🟨Maxime Barthelmé · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score0
16Shots4
10On target2
5Corners3
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyChateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.47
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.49
box share (last 5)0.520.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days59.001459.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
4.00
4.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.93—
elo1447.771470.57
elo momentum (last 5)7.32-21.70
eye test v10.181.21
eye trend v10.18-0.57
first sub minute (last 10)57.4045.56
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.23—
keeper form v10.750.58
league points10.0012.00
league rank16.0013.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.005.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4081.00
possession avg (last 5)45.8052.40
rest days6.217.00
scorer concentration0.380.30
season ppg1.111.33
skill v1-0.290.64
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.606.11
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.607.00
state index-0.10-0.56
sterile dominance v1-0.600.11
threat rate (last 10)0.250.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.25
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.20