⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Clermont 1–0 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Mon, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Clermont win42%2.33
Racing Club de Lens win30%3.29
Draw28%3.43

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Ludovic Ajorque · Clermont
26'🟨Dankler · Racing Club de Lens
36'🟨Thomas Fontaine · Clermont
58'🟨Jerome Phojo · Clermont
68'🟨Julien Laporte · Clermont
77'🟨Djiman Koukou · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
8Shots15
4On target9
4Corners9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricClermontRacing Club de Lens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.38
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.580.65
cards avg (last 5)1.203.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gabriel Montpied
1912.00
35.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d5.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.001.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.971.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.23
dominance (last 5)0.570.47
elo1499.781512.56
elo momentum (last 5)16.01-14.13
eye test v10.24-0.10
eye trend v10.15-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)64.8054.60
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.401.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
keeper form v10.860.70
league points20.006.00
league rank4.0019.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.0081.40
possession avg (last 5)48.6056.20
rest days6.006.80
scorer concentration0.400.29
season ppg1.820.67
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.007.20
skill v10.170.95
sot against avg (last 5)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.004.20
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.00
squad age24.6025.82
state index0.42-0.39
sterile dominance v1-0.341.04
threat rate (last 10)0.320.21
threat rate (last 3)0.270.18
threat rate (last 5)0.290.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.60