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FC Lorient 0–0 Nancy

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Sep 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Brisard Jerome, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win56%1.75
Draw26%3.74
Nancy win18%5.37

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'🟨Abou Ba · Nancy
27'🟨Ibrahima Sory Conté · FC Lorient
40'🟨Steven Moreira · FC Lorient
52'🟨Youssouf Hadji · Nancy
54'🟨Laurent Abergel · Nancy
85'🟨Alexis Busin · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
4Shots7
2On target3
4Corners4
2Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC LorientNancy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.38
box share (last 5)0.530.51
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days116.0053.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Moustoir
3.00
3.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.552.01
elo1519.251444.06
elo momentum (last 5)31.992.20
eye test v10.630.36
eye trend v1-0.010.48
first sub minute (last 10)64.0057.80
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.23
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
keeper form v10.760.70
league points17.009.00
league rank5.0016.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6075.00
possession avg (last 5)54.0047.20
rest days3.753.75
scorer concentration0.270.38
season ppg2.131.13
skill v10.82-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.605.00
state index0.49-0.39
sterile dominance v10.77-0.64
threat rate (last 10)0.230.25
threat rate (last 3)0.180.29
threat rate (last 5)0.200.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.200.20