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Sochaux 1–6 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win44%2.23
Draw31%3.18
Ajaccio win25%3.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟥Mickaël Alphonse · Sochaux
10'⚽Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
17'⚽Florian Martin · Sochaux
23'🟥Jeando Fuchs · Sochaux
24'⚽ (pen)Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
31'⚽Yoane Wissa · Ajaccio
34'⚽Yoane Wissa · Ajaccio
35'⚽Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
36'🟨Florian Martin · Sochaux
74'⚽Yoane Wissa · Ajaccio
75'🟥Manuel Cabit · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score5
6Shots15
4On target11
1Corners0
1Yellow cards0
2Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.580.56
cards avg (last 5)2.400.40
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
113.00
113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.006.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.21
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.40
corners for avg (last 5)6.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.941.70
defensive leak (last 5)0.200.14
dominance (last 5)0.480.46
elo1446.541454.31
elo momentum (last 5)-24.50-6.92
eye test v1-0.03-0.27
eye trend v10.030.44
first sub minute (last 10)58.2061.60
form points (last 5)6.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.841.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.30
keeper form v10.620.52
league points18.0023.00
league rank6.002.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.4075.80
possession avg (last 5)53.0047.80
rest days3.002.79
scorer concentration0.440.27
season ppg1.641.44
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.60-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.608.60
skill v10.01-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)5.204.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.60
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age24.0024.72
state index-0.65-0.64
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.41
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.320.28
threat rate (last 5)0.290.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.80