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Stade Brestois 29 1–1 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Sep 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pierre Gaillouste, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win48%2.04
Draw30%3.25
Paris FC win22%4.40

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

17'⚽Dylan Saint-Louis · Paris FC
57'🟨Valentin Lavigne · Paris FC
58'⚽Jean-Charles Castelletto · Stade Brestois 29
65'🟨Thomas Delaine · Paris FC
76'🟨Lalaina Nomenjanahary · Paris FC
90'🟨Ibrahima Sissoko · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots9
4On target3
6Corners4
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Paris FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.620.63
cards avg (last 5)2.202.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-Blé
448.00
113.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.260.17
corner diff avg (last 5)3.604.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.802.20
corners for avg (last 5)7.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)4.13—
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.11
dominance (last 5)0.410.65
elo1564.731443.03
elo momentum (last 5)58.8137.59
eye test v10.190.09
eye trend v1-0.42-0.13
first sub minute (last 10)60.2058.25
form points (last 5)15.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.850.92
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.50
keeper form v10.850.67
league points17.0019.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.6080.40
possession avg (last 5)49.2051.00
rest days3.003.00
scorer concentration0.220.38
season ppg1.892.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.005.60
shots for avg (last 5)9.6010.80
skill v1-0.130.49
sot against avg (last 5)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.304.38
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.004.00
squad age26.4128.62
state index0.710.43
sterile dominance v1-0.22-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.250.33
threat rate (last 3)0.190.32
threat rate (last 5)0.260.30
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.80