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Tours 0–4 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Tue, Sep 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Olivier Thual, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win39%2.50
Tours win32%3.02
Draw29%3.39

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

25'🟨Aniss El Hriti · Tours
27'🟨Rachid Alioui · Nimes
34'🟨Theo Valls · Nimes
40'⚽Liassine Cadamuro · Nimes
49'🟨Clément Depres · Nimes
51'⚽Panagiotis Vlachodimos · Nimes
53'⚽Romain Del Castillo · Nimes
68'🟨Romain Bayard · Tours
83'⚽Clément Depres · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
11Shots16
3On target7
6Corners5
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.520.34
box share (last 5)0.390.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days202.00688.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.831.83
elo1387.221575.24
elo momentum (last 5)-40.5416.00
eye test v10.580.41
eye trend v10.170.05
first sub minute (last 10)54.1061.50
form points (last 5)1.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.48
keeper form v10.610.69
league points1.0013.00
league rank19.005.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet10.000.00
matches since win9.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4068.60
possession avg (last 5)53.2049.40
rest days4.044.04
scorer concentration—0.22
season ppg0.141.86
skill v10.54-0.84
sot against avg (last 5)4.602.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.306.10
sot for avg (last 3)6.337.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.205.40
state index-1.400.70
sterile dominance v10.46-1.02
threat rate (last 10)0.250.33
threat rate (last 3)0.260.33
threat rate (last 5)0.220.32
venue ppg (last 5)0.602.40