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Paris FC 1–0 Orleans

← Ligue 2 2017 · Tue, Sep 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: William Lavis, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Paris FC win43%2.28
Draw32%3.08
Orleans win25%3.83

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Herve Lybohy · Paris FC
28'🟨Denis Will Poha · Orleans
32'🟨Ogou Akichi · Paris FC
49'🟨Livio Nabab · Orleans
57'🟨Maxime D'Arpino · Orleans
79'⚽Malik Tchokounte · Paris FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
17Shots1
5On target0
8Corners2
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCOrleans
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.29—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.27—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.27—
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.64—
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Charléty
110.00
1906.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.25
corner diff avg (last 5)4.000.40
corners against avg (last 5)2.605.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)—4.24
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.06
dominance (last 5)0.540.50
elo1433.631472.56
elo momentum (last 5)13.6447.49
eye test v1-0.08-0.04
eye trend v1-0.25-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)56.4367.60
form points (last 5)9.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.921.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.670.68
league points16.0014.00
league rank7.009.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.8072.40
possession avg (last 5)52.4042.80
rest days4.004.00
scorer concentration0.290.18
season ppg2.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)1.800.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.009.40
skill v10.53-0.91
sot against avg (last 5)3.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.434.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.805.00
squad age29.0727.67
state index-0.060.48
sterile dominance v10.07-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.320.22
threat rate (last 3)0.280.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.40