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Sochaux 2–4 Reims

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Sep 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Willy Delajod, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Reims win36%2.72
Sochaux win32%3.03
Draw32%3.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'🟨Jeando Fuchs · Sochaux
18'🟨Jordan Siebatcheu · Reims
24'🟨Mickaël Alphonse · Sochaux
28'🟨Jean Ruiz · Sochaux
31'🟨Xavier Chavalerin · Reims
32'⚽ (pen)Florian Martin · Sochaux
39'⚽Diego · Reims
46'⚽Jordan Siebatcheu · Reims
67'⚽Anatole Ngamukol · Reims
71'🟨Julian Jeanvier · Reims
72'⚽ (pen)Yakou Méïté · Sochaux
80'🟥Yakou Méïté · Sochaux
85'⚽Xavier Chavalerin · Reims

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
8Shots13
4On target6
2Corners6
3Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxReims
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.490.71
cards avg (last 5)2.601.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
107.00
138.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.11
corner diff avg (last 5)1.201.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.60
corners for avg (last 5)5.407.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.073.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.13
dominance (last 5)0.500.72
elo1468.321510.98
elo momentum (last 5)11.8310.13
eye test v1-0.020.23
eye trend v10.170.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.9061.70
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.201.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.701.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.680.66
league points18.0015.00
league rank3.006.00
matches since blank19.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.6074.80
possession avg (last 5)48.0046.20
rest days7.835.00
scorer concentration0.440.29
season ppg2.002.14
shot diff avg (last 5)0.407.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.8013.20
skill v1-0.52-0.42
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.504.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.80
squad age24.6425.04
state index-0.010.40
sterile dominance v1-0.75-0.71
threat rate (last 10)0.270.28
threat rate (last 3)0.290.32
threat rate (last 5)0.300.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20