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Racing Club de Lens 2–3 FC Lorient

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Sep 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Lorient win37%2.66
Racing Club de Lens win33%2.95
Draw30%3.22

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Gaël Danic · FC Lorient
23'⚽Filip Marković · Racing Club de Lens
28'🟨Steven Moreira · FC Lorient
39'🟨Souleymane Diarra · Racing Club de Lens
44'🟨Franklin Wadja · FC Lorient
58'⚽Gaëtan Courtet · FC Lorient
65'⚽Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
69'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
71'🟨Ibrahima Sory Conté · FC Lorient
81'🟨Karim Hafez · Racing Club de Lens
82'⚽ (pen)Denis Bouanga · FC Lorient
86'🟨Souleymane Diarra · Racing Club de Lens
86'🟥Souleymane Diarra · Racing Club de Lens
87'🟨Frederic Duplus · Racing Club de Lens
88'🟨Denis Bouanga · FC Lorient

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
6Shots9
5On target7
7Corners4
5Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensFC Lorient
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.37
box share (last 5)0.700.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days19.00102.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
2.00
1.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.162.58
elo1459.561512.37
elo momentum (last 5)-63.1440.71
eye test v1-0.010.90
eye trend v1-0.060.42
first sub minute (last 10)52.4063.40
form points (last 5)0.0011.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.401.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.400.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.58
h2h win rate (last 5)0.100.90
keeper form v10.690.80
league points0.0011.00
league rank19.008.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet6.001.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.4081.40
possession avg (last 5)57.8059.20
rest days11.7614.00
scorer concentration—0.43
season ppg0.002.20
skill v10.771.17
sot against avg (last 5)5.602.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.006.00
state index-1.070.47
sterile dominance v10.710.47
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.170.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80