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Nancy 3–0 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Sep 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nancy win57%1.72
Draw28%3.53
Valenciennes win16%6.19

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Baptiste Aloé · Valenciennes
38'🟨Johann Ramare · Valenciennes
58'🟨Jorris Romil · Valenciennes
60'🟨Laurent Abergel · Nancy
71'⚽Amine Bassi · Nancy
75'⚽Amine Bassi · Nancy
86'⚽Youssouf Hadji · Nancy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
11Shots10
6On target5
5Corners6
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricNancyValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.21
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.20
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.23
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.440.42
cards avg (last 5)2.201.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Marcel-Picot
38.00
616.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-2.80-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.971.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.04
dominance (last 5)0.390.38
elo1518.251468.26
elo momentum (last 5)-31.1814.49
eye test v1-0.96-0.69
eye trend v10.140.30
first sub minute (last 10)57.6061.10
form points (last 5)3.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.200.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.640.89
league points3.009.00
league rank17.0011.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win5.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.0080.60
possession avg (last 5)46.2052.20
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration—0.33
season ppg0.601.60
skill v1-1.010.60
sot against avg (last 5)4.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.002.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.802.80
state index-0.720.04
sterile dominance v1-0.340.56
threat rate (last 10)0.230.18
threat rate (last 3)0.240.19
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20