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Tours 1–3 Ajaccio

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Aug 25, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tours win39%2.51
Draw31%3.11
Ajaccio win30%3.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Moussa Maazou · Ajaccio
20'🟨Manuel Cabit · Ajaccio
22'⚽Ghislain Gimbert · Ajaccio
71'⚽Maki Tall · Tours
79'🟨Brian Bergougnoux · Tours
82'🟨Yoane Wissa · Ajaccio
90'🟨Hameur Bouazza · Tours
90'⚽Yoane Wissa · Ajaccio

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
23Shots10
11On target6
13Corners4
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursAjaccio
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.520.49
cards avg (last 5)1.201.20
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
177.00
85.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.006.00
conversion (last 5)—0.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.405.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.402.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.721.70
defensive leak (last 5)—0.09
dominance (last 5)—0.43
elo1396.571479.56
elo momentum (last 5)-53.0723.34
eye test v10.21-1.10
eye trend v1-0.170.03
first sub minute (last 10)56.2058.80
form points (last 5)0.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
keeper form v10.640.64
league points0.0014.00
league rank21.002.00
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet7.000.00
matches since win6.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)82.2071.20
possession avg (last 5)57.2046.20
rest days7.006.83
season ppg0.001.75
shot diff avg (last 5)—-3.20
shots for avg (last 5)—7.80
skill v11.12-0.78
sot against avg (last 5)6.003.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.402.40
squad age23.9329.85
state index-1.36-0.11
sterile dominance v11.020.01
threat rate (last 10)0.240.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.19
threat rate (last 5)0.190.18
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.80