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Chateauroux 1–0 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Mon, Aug 21, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Nimes win47%2.07
Draw28%3.45
Chateauroux win25%3.95

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'🟨Serigne Fallou Niang · Chateauroux
23'🟨Pierrick Valdivia · Nimes
28'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
50'🟨Gaëtan Paquiez · Nimes
56'🟨Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
60'🟨Opa Sangante · Chateauroux
79'⚽Yann Mabella · Chateauroux
90'🟨Christophe Mandanne · Chateauroux
90'🟨Sidy Sarr · Chateauroux
90'πŸŸ₯Christophe Mandanne Β· Chateauroux

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
12Shots12
6On target2
3Corners6
6Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.450.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.450.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.530.57
cards avg (last 5)1.000.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Petit
1420.00
659.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
corner diff avg (last 5)β€”2.60
corners against avg (last 5)β€”2.60
corners for avg (last 5)β€”5.20
corners volatility (last 10)β€”3.00
elo1355.631567.09
elo momentum (last 5)-2.9310.28
eye test v10.320.89
eye trend v1β€”-0.44
first sub minute (last 10)25.6754.50
form points (last 5)4.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.26
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.570.64
league points3.004.00
league rank15.0013.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win2.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6774.60
possession avg (last 5)50.6755.60
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.001.33
skill v10.610.23
sot against avg (last 5)4.672.40
sot for avg (last 10)β€”5.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.674.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.676.20
squad age26.3523.98
state index-0.760.54
sterile dominance v10.39-0.47
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.30
threat rate (last 3)0.220.34
threat rate (last 5)0.220.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.60