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Racing Club de Lens 2–4 Stade Brestois 29

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Aug 19, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicolas Rainville, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win48%2.05
Draw27%3.56
Stade Brestois 29 win25%3.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
18'🟨Anthony Weber · Stade Brestois 29
44'⚽Jason Berthomier · Stade Brestois 29
47'⚽ (og)Jeremy Vachoux · Stade Brestois 29
63'⚽Jessy Pi · Stade Brestois 29
68'⚽ (pen)Kévin Fortuné · Racing Club de Lens
80'⚽Julien Faussurier · Stade Brestois 29

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots12
7On target8
1Corners9
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensStade Brestois 29
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.41
box share (last 5)0.650.60
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days414.00414.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
3.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.112.08
elo1491.321473.12
elo momentum (last 5)-2.64-1.09
eye test v10.160.74
eye trend v1-0.35-0.47
first sub minute (last 10)54.6056.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.002.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.971.73
keeper form v10.67—
league points0.001.00
league rank19.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet4.000.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4082.00
possession avg (last 5)55.0058.20
rest days7.007.79
season ppg0.000.33
skill v10.371.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.404.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.905.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.405.60
state index-0.14-0.08
sterile dominance v10.320.67
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.230.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.80