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Ajaccio 2–0 Paris FC

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Fri, Aug 18, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Jeremy Stinat, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ajaccio win45%2.15
Draw32%3.05
Paris FC win23%4.32

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'🟨Redouane Kerrouche · Paris FC
51'🟨Riad Nouri · Ajaccio
61'🟨Thomas Delaine · Paris FC
63'🟨Ousmane Sidibe · Paris FC
64'⚽ (pen)Johan Cavalli · Ajaccio
69'🟨Ogou Akichi · Paris FC
81'⚽Qazim Laci · Ajaccio
89'πŸŸ₯Herve Lybohy Β· Paris FC

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
5Shots8
3On target6
0Corners7
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricAjaccioParis FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.35β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.500.54
cards avg (last 5)1.400.80
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade FranΓ§ois-Coty
78.00
78.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d6.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.10β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40β€”
corners against avg (last 5)6.40β€”
corners for avg (last 5)3.00β€”
corners volatility (last 10)1.45β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.11β€”
dominance (last 5)0.44β€”
elo1460.981405.43
elo momentum (last 5)17.23-2.61
eye test v1-0.700.58
eye trend v1-0.41β€”
first sub minute (last 10)60.2046.33
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.35
keeper form v10.630.64
league points8.007.00
league rank6.007.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.6075.00
possession avg (last 5)42.0047.67
rest days6.837.00
season ppg1.331.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00β€”
shots for avg (last 5)9.00β€”
skill v1-1.23-0.28
sot against avg (last 5)3.403.33
sot for avg (last 10)3.40β€”
sot for avg (last 3)1.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.205.00
squad age30.6129.01
state index-0.20-0.49
sterile dominance v1-0.69-1.24
threat rate (last 10)0.22β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.150.38
threat rate (last 5)0.230.38
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.80