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Sochaux 3–2 Racing Club de Lens

← Ligue 2 2017 · Sat, Aug 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Amaury Delerue, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Sochaux win41%2.39
Draw31%3.17
Racing Club de Lens win28%3.43

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

36'🟨El-Hadji Ba · Sochaux
37'🟨Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
39'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
40'⚽Adolphe Teikeu · Sochaux
49'🟨Ivan Lendrić · Racing Club de Lens
55'⚽Florian Martin · Sochaux
64'⚽Florian Martin · Sochaux
74'🟨Aldo Kalulu · Sochaux
74'⚽Ivan Lendrić · Racing Club de Lens
76'🟨Axel Mohamed Bakayoko · Sochaux
83'⚽ (pen)Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots19
9On target11
2Corners4
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSochauxRacing Club de Lens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.35
box share (last 5)0.340.57
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days72.00407.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bonal
2.00
2.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.202.11
elo1442.511501.29
elo momentum (last 5)-2.936.19
eye test v1-0.600.16
eye trend v10.36-0.05
first sub minute (last 10)56.6054.60
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.632.06
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
keeper form v10.640.75
matches since blank9.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.4077.40
possession avg (last 5)49.2055.60
rest days7.797.79
season ppg2.000.00
skill v1-0.340.52
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
state index-0.360.14
sterile dominance v1-0.190.23
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.80