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Racing Club de Lens 1–2 Nimes

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Aug 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Florent Batta, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Racing Club de Lens win46%2.14
Draw29%3.35
Nimes win25%3.85

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Cristian López · Racing Club de Lens
19'🟨Dušan Cvetinović · Racing Club de Lens
23'🟨Jean-Kévin Duverne · Racing Club de Lens
26'🟨Álvaro Lemos · Racing Club de Lens
39'🟨Jeremy Vachoux · Racing Club de Lens
54'🟨Umut Bozok · Nimes
56'🟨Zie Diabate · Nimes
87'⚽Renaud Ripart · Nimes
90'⚽Teji Savanier · Nimes

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots17
4On target7
2Corners4
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRacing Club de LensNimes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.310.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.560.72
cards avg (last 5)0.400.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Bollaert-Delelis
399.00
642.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.12—
corner diff avg (last 5)1.603.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.002.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.973.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.09—
dominance (last 5)0.32—
elo1569.061557.95
elo momentum (last 5)30.26-3.61
eye test v10.581.09
eye trend v10.21-0.02
first sub minute (last 10)59.6054.80
form points (last 5)10.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)2.161.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v1—0.66
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.006.00
matches since win1.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8074.20
possession avg (last 5)58.2052.60
rest days4.007.00
season ppg0.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-8.00—
shots for avg (last 5)7.60—
skill v10.85-0.01
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.405.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.676.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.806.80
squad age24.5125.42
state index0.460.32
sterile dominance v10.01-0.50
threat rate (last 10)0.250.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.30
threat rate (last 5)0.310.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.402.00