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Le Havre AC 4–1 AJ Auxerre

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Aug 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Johan Hamel, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Le Havre AC win48%2.04
Draw31%3.16
AJ Auxerre win21%4.55

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Moussa Diallo · AJ Auxerre
27'⚽Romain Philippoteaux · AJ Auxerre
34'🟨Pierre-Yves Polomat · AJ Auxerre
51'🟨Yacouba Coulibaly · Le Havre AC
57'🟨Pierre-Yves Polomat · AJ Auxerre
57'🟥Pierre-Yves Polomat · AJ Auxerre
68'⚽Ebenezer Assifuah · Le Havre AC
78'🟨Yaya Sane · AJ Auxerre
78'🟨Yaya Sane · AJ Auxerre
78'🟥Yaya Sane · AJ Auxerre
85'⚽Ebenezer Assifuah · Le Havre AC
87'⚽Nathael Julan · Le Havre AC
90'🟨Jordan Adeoti · AJ Auxerre
90'⚽Zinedine Ferhat · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots6
4On target3
5Corners1
1Yellow cards6
0Red cards2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLe Havre ACAJ Auxerre
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.430.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.560.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.33
box share (last 5)0.510.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days307.0064.00
congestion 21d
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Océane
1.00
1.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.733.08
elo1486.281447.79
elo momentum (last 5)48.5825.50
eye test v10.84-0.19
eye trend v10.460.08
first sub minute (last 10)61.4068.20
form points (last 5)10.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.650.63
keeper form v10.830.83
matches since blank3.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.6070.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4045.40
rest days7.003.97
season ppg3.003.00
skill v10.87-0.91
sot against avg (last 5)2.803.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.004.00
sot for avg (last 3)7.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.20
state index0.750.16
sterile dominance v10.30-0.74
threat rate (last 10)0.230.26
threat rate (last 3)0.270.29
threat rate (last 5)0.250.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.60