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Chateauroux 0–1 Valenciennes

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Fri, Aug 4, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Faouzi Benchabane

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Chateauroux win46%2.10
Draw31%3.13
Valenciennes win22%4.35

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
48'⚽Lebo Mothiba · Valenciennes
58'🟨Lebo Mothiba · Valenciennes

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
10Shots10
6On target4
4Corners7
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricChateaurouxValenciennes
accuracy ratio (last 10)β€”0.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)β€”0.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)β€”0.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)β€”0.35
cards avg (last 5)0.400.00
coach days1403.00581.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.002.00
conversion (last 5)β€”0.06
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Gaston-Petit
corner diff avg (last 5)
β€”
0.80
corners against avg (last 5)β€”4.40
corners for avg (last 5)β€”5.20
corners volatility (last 10)β€”1.75
defensive leak (last 5)β€”0.15
dominance (last 5)β€”0.48
elo1371.991451.78
elo momentum (last 5)49.17-19.47
eye test v1β€”-1.34
eye trend v1β€”-0.37
first sub minute (last 10)β€”58.80
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.33
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
keeper form v1β€”0.71
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.003.00
matches since win0.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)β€”80.60
possession avg (last 5)β€”55.20
rest days7.006.83
season ppg3.001.00
shot diff avg (last 5)β€”-1.20
shots for avg (last 5)β€”11.00
skill v1β€”0.83
sot against avg (last 5)β€”3.40
sot for avg (last 10)β€”3.00
sot for avg (last 3)β€”1.67
sot for avg (last 5)β€”1.60
squad age25.0628.37
state index0.12-0.63
sterile dominance v1β€”1.29
threat rate (last 10)β€”0.16
threat rate (last 3)β€”0.12
threat rate (last 5)β€”0.13
venue ppg (last 5)1.401.20