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Tours 0–3 Le Havre AC

← Ligue 2 2017 · Fri, Jul 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sylvain Palhies, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tours win35%2.81
Le Havre AC win33%2.92
Draw32%3.06

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Ebenezer Assifuah · Le Havre AC
22'🟨Hameur Bouazza · Tours
26'🟨Harold Moukoudi · Le Havre AC
50'⚽Barnabás Bese · Le Havre AC
53'🟨Jonathan Gradit · Tours
89'🟨Zinedine Ferhat · Le Havre AC
90'⚽Jean-Pascal Fontaine · Le Havre AC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
4Shots16
1On target9
3Corners4
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricToursLe Havre AC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.43
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.600.49
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de la Vallée-du-Cher
149.00
300.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)—0.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.471.83
defensive leak (last 5)—0.08
dominance (last 5)—0.38
elo1441.241511.55
elo momentum (last 5)2.6428.95
eye test v10.810.48
eye trend v10.150.08
first sub minute (last 10)58.9061.70
form points (last 5)7.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.001.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.62
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.680.82
matches since blank1.002.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.0082.40
possession avg (last 5)54.6051.20
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)—-7.00
shots for avg (last 5)—11.00
skill v10.720.73
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.805.00
squad age23.9825.50
state index0.020.37
sterile dominance v1-0.000.29
threat rate (last 10)0.290.21
threat rate (last 3)0.360.22
threat rate (last 5)0.290.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.40