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Stade Brestois 29 2–3 Chateauroux

← Ligue 2 2017 Β· Fri, Jul 28, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Aurelien Petit, France

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Brestois 29 win51%1.91
Draw30%3.27
Chateauroux win19%5.13

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'🟨Chaker Alhadhur · Chateauroux
4'🟨Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois 29
30'⚽Anthony Weber · Stade Brestois 29
37'🟨Cheik Traoré · Chateauroux
68'⚽ (pen)Bruno Grougi · Stade Brestois 29
75'⚽ (pen)Saïd Benrahma · Chateauroux
87'⚽Yannick M'Bone · Chateauroux
90'⚽Sofiane Khadda · Chateauroux

from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
16Shots9
5On target6
9Corners6
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Brestois 29Chateauroux
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.41β€”
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.45β€”
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.40β€”
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.76β€”
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β€” tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le-BlΓ©
392.00
1396.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.04β€”
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60β€”
corners against avg (last 5)3.80β€”
corners for avg (last 5)5.40β€”
corners volatility (last 10)2.02β€”
defensive leak (last 5)0.23β€”
dominance (last 5)0.60β€”
elo1538.321355.97
elo momentum (last 5)34.6725.44
eye test v10.86β€”
eye trend v10.11β€”
first sub minute (last 10)56.40β€”
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)3.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)2.121.06
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet8.001.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.20β€”
possession avg (last 5)60.80β€”
rest days30.0030.00
shot diff avg (last 5)5.40β€”
shots for avg (last 5)15.20β€”
skill v11.18β€”
sot against avg (last 5)5.40β€”
sot for avg (last 10)5.60β€”
sot for avg (last 3)6.67β€”
sot for avg (last 5)5.80β€”
squad age27.78β€”
state index0.71-0.44
sterile dominance v10.59β€”
threat rate (last 10)0.25β€”
threat rate (last 3)0.26β€”
threat rate (last 5)0.26β€”
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60