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Holstein Kiel 6–2 Braunschweig

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Tobias Welz, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Braunschweig win43%2.24
Holstein Kiel win32%3.00
Draw24%4.01

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Jan Hochscheidt · Braunschweig
16'⚽Aaron Seydel · Holstein Kiel
19'⚽Ken Reichel · Braunschweig
22'⚽Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel
24'🟨Gustav Valsvik · Braunschweig
30'⚽Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel
33'⚽Rafael Czichos · Holstein Kiel
57'⚽Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel
60'⚽Steven Lewerenz · Holstein Kiel

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score2
20Shots14
8On target7
4Corners5
20Fouls9
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHolstein KielBraunschweig
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.460.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.40
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.730.59
cards avg (last 5)1.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHolstein-Stadion
2.00
coach days650.003664.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.300.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-3.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.006.60
corners for avg (last 5)6.203.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.662.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.08
dominance (last 5)0.450.34
elo1573.971493.50
elo momentum (last 5)15.09-34.25
eye test v1-0.00-0.58
eye trend v1-0.08-0.20
first sub minute (last 10)64.6051.00
form points (last 5)8.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)2.011.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
keeper form v10.690.77
league points59.0043.00
league rank3.0015.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.002.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.0067.40
possession avg (last 5)52.0043.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.330.22
season ppg1.691.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.20-8.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.808.80
skill v1-0.43-1.40
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.804.10
sot for avg (last 3)4.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.60
squad age27.6928.05
state index0.46-0.89
sterile dominance v10.13-0.58
threat rate (last 10)0.220.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.22
threat rate (last 5)0.210.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.40