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Ingolstadt 1–3 Kaiserslautern

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Sven Waschitzki, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win67%1.44
Draw19%5.21
Kaiserslautern win14%6.90

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'⚽Phillipp Mwene · Kaiserslautern
42'⚽Phillipp Mwene · Kaiserslautern
47'⚽Sebastian Andersson · Kaiserslautern
49'⚽Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
16Shots8
4On target4
4Corners3
13Fouls11
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtKaiserslautern
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.390.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.740.64
cards avg (last 5)1.002.60
coach days285.00101.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.09
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi Sportpark
corner diff avg (last 5)3.60-1.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.80
corners for avg (last 5)7.204.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.431.90
defensive leak (last 5)0.250.07
dominance (last 5)0.470.37
elo1518.031444.46
elo momentum (last 5)-22.56-19.15
eye test v1-0.45-0.17
eye trend v10.13-0.09
first sub minute (last 10)65.0061.60
form points (last 5)5.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.171.49
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.580.72
league points46.0035.00
league rank8.0019.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.2075.80
possession avg (last 5)53.6048.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.250.34
season ppg1.311.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-9.00
shots for avg (last 5)9.6013.00
skill v1-0.30-0.18
sot against avg (last 5)5.606.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.80
squad age26.5725.90
state index-0.51-0.51
sterile dominance v10.33-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.220.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.27
threat rate (last 5)0.190.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20