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Heidenheim 1–1 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Harm Osmers, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Heidenheim win43%2.26
Greuther Furth win31%3.16
Draw26%3.68

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Sebastian Griesbeck · Heidenheim
14'🟨Nik Omladič · Greuther Furth
44'🟨Mario Maloča · Greuther Furth
51'⚽Julian Green · Greuther Furth
75'🟨Maximilian Wittek · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Serdar Dursun · Greuther Furth
90'⚽Tim Skarke · Heidenheim

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
16Shots8
4On target4
7Corners6
11Fouls14
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHeidenheimGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.25
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.22
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.20
box share (last 5)0.520.54
cards avg (last 5)1.801.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVoith-Arena
coach days3907.00254.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.805.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.412.44
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.500.51
elo1471.641445.45
elo momentum (last 5)16.94-29.85
eye test v1-0.03-0.61
eye trend v10.170.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.3065.80
form points (last 5)7.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.850.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.620.68
league points42.0040.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet1.005.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.0066.00
possession avg (last 5)40.0049.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.18
season ppg1.201.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.20
skill v1-1.66-1.10
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.903.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.403.20
squad age27.1225.22
state index0.18-0.78
sterile dominance v1-1.78-0.85
threat rate (last 10)0.300.30
threat rate (last 3)0.350.31
threat rate (last 5)0.350.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00