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Bochum 1–1 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2017 · Sun, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Patrick Alt, Germany

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bochum win53%1.83
Regensburg win25%3.95
Draw22%4.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

31'🟨Anthony Losilla · Bochum
34'🟨Markus Palionis · Regensburg
40'🟨Robert Tesche · Bochum
40'🟨Patrick Fabian · Bochum
40'🟨Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
45'🟨Asger Sørensen · Regensburg
61'🟨Sidney Sam · Bochum
62'🟨Sargis Adamyan · Regensburg
64'⚽Marco Grüttner · Regensburg
87'⚽Johannes Wurtz · Bochum

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
14Shots20
3On target5
4Corners9
15Fouls17
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBochumRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.520.52
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVonovia Ruhrstadion
coach days101.00316.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.10
corner diff avg (last 5)2.200.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.203.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.404.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.36
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.19
dominance (last 5)0.450.58
elo1497.081421.13
elo momentum (last 5)14.11-21.18
eye test v1-0.270.25
eye trend v1-0.31-0.34
first sub minute (last 10)63.9046.10
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.84
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.35
keeper form v10.700.62
league points48.0050.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank9.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.0012.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.6067.00
possession avg (last 5)57.2053.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.440.26
season ppg1.371.43
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.404.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.8016.60
skill v10.81-0.76
sot against avg (last 5)4.405.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.104.80
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.605.00
squad age28.3626.13
state index0.15-0.70
sterile dominance v10.78-0.76
threat rate (last 10)0.230.28
threat rate (last 3)0.180.26
threat rate (last 5)0.210.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00